Atlantic - Gustav
THESE OUR MY VIEWS... NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST.. Refer to
the NHC or you local NWS Office.
My Summary ~ Gustav is on his way to becoming a Major Hurricane...
pressure falls over night were about 2-3mb and hr. Last check it was around
954mb at 11am cdt on the 30th. I expect the system maybe slowing some now,
because looking at the satellites the eye has become real clear... which now its
going to be the eye wall replacement cycles that will be the main factor for the
storm to get stronger. However the storm is nearing and island on the western
tip of Cuba, so I think a slowing down will take place before he crosses Cuba.
INTERESTING to not Gustav went more north this morning than forecasted... update:
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.
My Summary ~ Still up in the air on the exact forecast track for Gustav...
but the models have been consistent over the last three days on a southern coast
Louisiana landfall. I expect once the system clears Jamaica we will see a rapid
intensification stage, which will likely make the first major hurricane on the
2008 season... however I don't think this will be the last one for this year. Eye
wall replacement cycles will be the determining factor on how Gustav does with
landfall strength. When he hits the loop current in the southern gulf of
Mexico... I wouldn't be surprised to see a very strong hurricane. update: 9:pm cdt
MY Summary ~ Gustav forecast is going to be somewhat uncertain
after about Wednesday. A general NW motion should occur with a possible
Hurricane landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti late Tuesday (26th). The
forecast beyond 48hrs is really going to depend on how well the structure of
Gustav gets before a ridge builds in to the north and the land interaction with
Haiti and Cuba. update: 2:30pm cdt
A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°49'N 70°30'W (15.8167N 70.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 189 miles (303 km) to the SSW (192°) from
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: No min. height observation at
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles
(62 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 58kts (From the
NNE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles
(9 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C
(63°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C
(72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye):
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical
miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z
Appears to me that Gustav is in a Rapid Intensification
stage. expect Recon to find lower pressure and higher winds.
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.
Possibly history being made right now in the
Caribbean as 94L was upgraded to a TD at 11pm on the August 25th,
2008. But amazing satellite shots coming in show a well defined
eye-like center. check it out: curtsey RAMMB
Last UPDATE at: 12:45pm CDT
The visible shot was take 30 minutes earlier as a hot tower formed
in the center of circulation.
Recon is en route to investigate and most likely to give NHC truth
to the storms structure and status. Would not surprise me to see a
TS with at least a 45-50mph winds and a pressure less than 998mb.
UPATED COMING WHEN RECON FLYS THROUGH.
Caribbean Weather Observations
Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)
Jamaican Radio (106
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean
(Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Gustav Event Related Links
SFWMD Model Plot ,
SFWMD Hurricane Page (More
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Gustav
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Gustav
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Gustav
-- RAMMB Info
Floater Satellite Images:
Islands Weather Reports