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Atlantic - Gustav

THESE OUR MY VIEWS... NOT an OFFICIAL FORECAST.. Refer to the NHC or you local NWS Office.

My Summary ~ Gustav is on his way to becoming a Major Hurricane... pressure falls over night were about 2-3mb and hr. Last check it was around 954mb at 11am cdt on the 30th. I expect the system maybe slowing some now, because looking at the satellites the eye has become real clear... which now its going to be the eye wall replacement cycles that will be the main factor for the storm to get stronger. However the storm is nearing and island on the western tip of Cuba, so I think a slowing down will take place before he crosses Cuba. INTERESTING to not Gustav went more north this morning than forecasted... update: 12pm cdt 8/30/08

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

My Summary ~ Still up in the air on the exact forecast track for Gustav... but the models have been consistent over the last three days on a southern coast Louisiana landfall. I expect once the system clears Jamaica we will see a rapid intensification stage, which will likely make the first major hurricane on the 2008 season... however I don't think this will be the last one for this year. Eye wall replacement cycles will be the determining factor on how Gustav does with landfall strength. When he hits the loop current in the southern gulf of Mexico... I wouldn't be surprised to see a very strong hurricane. update: 9:pm cdt 8/28/08

MY Summary ~  Gustav forecast is going to be somewhat uncertain after about Wednesday. A general NW motion should occur with a possible Hurricane landfall on the southwestern tip of Haiti late Tuesday (26th). The forecast beyond 48hrs is really going to depend on how well the structure of Gustav gets before a ridge builds in to the north and the land interaction with Haiti and Cuba.  update: 2:30pm cdt

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 17:33:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°49'N 70°30'W (15.8167N 70.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 189 miles (303 km) to the SSW (192°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: No min. height observation at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the NW (322°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 28° at 58kts (From the NNE at ~ 66.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NW (304°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.41 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 760m (2,493ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 67 KT SE QUAD 17:36:30 Z

Appears to me that Gustav is in a Rapid Intensification stage. expect Recon to find lower pressure and higher winds.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS STRENGTHENED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MINUTES TO UPDATE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER PASCH

    Possibly history being made right now in the Caribbean as 94L was upgraded to a TD at 11pm on the August 25th, 2008. But amazing satellite shots coming in show a well defined eye-like center. check it out:  curtsey RAMMB   

Last UPDATE at: 12:45pm CDT 8/25/08

The visible shot was take 30 minutes earlier as a hot tower formed in the center of circulation.

Recon is en route to investigate and most likely to give NHC truth to the storms structure and status. Would not surprise me to see a TS with at least a 45-50mph winds and a pressure less than 998mb. UPATED COMING WHEN RECON FLYS THROUGH.

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