News and Events
December 15th, 2007
Remnants of Tropical Storm Olga enter the GOM and are pulled northward as a VERY strong cold front sweeps out of the plains into the SE US. A developing low moved in from the central GOM and raced to the NE over the Mississippi Valley... as moisture and a round of showers and storms were pulled north into NW Florida. Mobile NWS office led things off with a very strong cell that came ashore in Santa Rosa County just after launch time. There was reported roofs torn off two houses in Navarre Beach area. The cell tracked NE across Eglin's AFB towards the Crestview... At one point, I think I saw around 115kts at about 1500ft as it moved over the western part of Elgin. MOB issued the warnings well in advance of the cell.
The next round appeared to be another cell that came ashore in Okaloosa County near the Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther area... it too tracked to the NE, but appeared to me to be a little weaker on KEVX radar then the other cell I was watching cross near Crestview... I think this was do to the fact that this cell developed along with some other heavy "TROPICAL" showers and was not able to separate its self to allow in low level rotation to occur. Aloft at about 7,000 Ft. the jet was screaming out of the SW. (I'll try to post some images later this week to show what I am talking about) Some reported minor damage from this cell was noted. It weakened as it crossed over Niceville and then as it approached the Okaloosa/Walton County line... it's rotation weakened.
The next cell that become interesting was once again a cell that was by it's self of the Walton County coastline. I begin watching this cell as it was about 30 miles off of Sandestin, Florida... It begin to show signs of rotation as it main structure passed about 15,000ft while being blown to the ENE. When it got to about 14 miles offshore, the radar beam from KEVX had a pretty good look at it's lower structure... There was enough there to issues a Tornado Warning for south Walton county. As the next few scans on level II data came in... the cell begin to take on a classic comma shape and the rotation begin to pick up. Lucky as it crossed the HWY 98 area in Walton County, it was going to be over much wooded area until it got until about HWY 20 between Ebro and Bruce. Which in this case it was only 15 miles of so to the SW of KEVX radar, so getting a good look at the storm was very possible... and the classic GATE-TO-GATE signature was showing up as it crossed HWY 20 there in south Walton.
I was given a report that a resident off of Seymour Rd... off of CR-3280 in Walton County, claimed he had seen a Funnel Cloud from his house, to the SE in the lightning. He said his power went on and off and that saw and heard the wind pick up very fast and tree branches were flying all over and that his neighbor's fence was knocked down. Unconfirmed report.
Will add more in the coming days.
Last Panhandle Tornado Warning Issued:
-
000
WFUS52 KTAE 152259
TORTAE
FLC131-133-152345-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0047.071215T2259Z-071215T2345Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
459 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VERNON...
* UNTIL 545 PM CST
* AT 457 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A DEVELOPING TORNADO 22 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VERNON...OR ABOUT 14 MILES EAST OF SANTA ROSA BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
VERNON BY 525 PM CST...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
LAT...LON 3041 8603 3070 8592 3075 8564 3075 8561
3076 8558 3060 8556 3051 8568 3041 8592
3040 8598 3038 8599
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 236DEG 42KT 3042 8597
$$
38-GODSEY
-
First Tornado Warning Issued:
000
WFUS52 KTAE 152238
TORTAE
FLC131-152300-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0045.071215T2237Z-071215T2300Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
437 PM CST SAT DEC 15 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN WALTON COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
* UNTIL 500 PM CST
* AT 435 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A DEVELOPING WATERSPOUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHOCTAW BAY ESTATES...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA
BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* THE WATERSPOUT WILL BE MOVING ASHORE AND WILL BE NEAR...
PORT WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW AND CHOCTAW BAY ESTATES BY 445 PM CST...
CHOCTAW...BUNKER AND OLD BAY VIEW BY 450 PM CST...
BRUCE BY 500 PM CST...
WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A WATERSPOUT
MAY ALREADY BE ON THE SURFACE...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
AND THEN MOVE ASHORE. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS
STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY
OVERPASS.
WATERSPOUTS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED DAMAGE AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS WATERSPOUT...PLEASE GO TO A SAFE PLACE
IMMEDIATELY.
RELAY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE AT (8 5 0) 9 4 2 8 8 3 3. OR...YOU MAY CONTACT THE
NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CST SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.
LAT...LON 3035 8621 3042 8617 3042 8615 3045 8616
3062 8606 3056 8589 3045 8594 3031 8607
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 216DEG 40KT 3028 8619
$$
38-GODSEY
Warnings were Issued by NWS Office in Tallahassee, Florida.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 445 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VALDOSTA
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST AL/FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
WOUS64 KWNS 152141
WOU8
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 738
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
445 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2007
TORNADO WATCH 738 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ALC031-045-061-067-069-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0738.071215T2145Z-071216T0400Z/
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COFFEE DALE GENEVA
HENRY HOUSTON
FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-059-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-
131-133-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0738.071215T2145Z-071216T0400Z/
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAY CALHOUN DIXIE
FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF
HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY
MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA
WALTON WASHINGTON
GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177-
185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0738.071215T2145Z-071216T0400Z/
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY
COLQUITT COOK DECATUR
DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY
IRWIN LANIER LEE
LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL
QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE
TERRELL THOMAS TIFT
TURNER WORTH
GMZ730-750-755-160400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0738.071215T2145Z-071216T0400Z/
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8 WW 738 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 152145Z - 160400Z AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE.. 40WNW PFN/PANAMA CITY FL/ - 15ENE VLD/VALDOSTA GA/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM N/S /31SE CEW - 49SW AMG/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. LAT...LON 31538630 31958305 29788305 29358630 THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU8.
Watch 738 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 738 VALID 160150Z - 160240Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW AAF TO 30 NW TLH TO 30 SSW ABY TO 20 NNW ABY. ..CARBIN..12/16/07 ATTN...WFO...TAE... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 738 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC029-037-039-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-160240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA $$ GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-095-131-155-173-177-185-205-275-277- 287-321-160240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR DOUGHERTY GRADY IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MITCHELL THOMAS TIFT TURNER WORTH $$ GMZ730-750-755-160240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$ STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 738 VALID 160035Z - 160140Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW PFN TO 15 N PFN TO 10 N MAI TO 30 NE DHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2226 ..CARBIN..12/16/07 ATTN...WFO...TAE... && STATUS REPORT FOR WT 738 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-063-065-067-073-077-079-123-129- 160140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA $$ GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-173-177- 185-201-205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-160140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS CALHOUN CLAY COLQUITT COOK DECATUR DOUGHERTY EARLY GRADY IRWIN LANIER LEE LOWNDES MILLER MITCHELL QUITMAN RANDOLPH SEMINOLE TERRELL THOMAS TIFT TURNER WORTH $$ GMZ730-750-755-160140- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM $$ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. $$
Please visit the National Weather Service Interactive Weather Information Network (IWIN) for more information on the warnings.
Note: Click
for
Complete Product Text. Tornadoes
| Probability of 2 or more tornadoes |
Mod (40%) |
| Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes |
Low (20%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe wind events |
Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots |
Mod (30%) |
| Probability of 10 or more severe hail events |
Low (10%) |
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches |
Low (10%) |
| Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind
events |
High (70%) |
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), "Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
